CTS Lesson 7: Playing The Odds.

Playing The Odds...Commodity Trading Vegas Style By: Carley Garner Casinos bring in gaming revenue confident that over time they will collect more that they pay out in winnings. Similarly, insurance companies collect premium in anticipation of the probability of future payouts. Option traders can benefit from the same logic by selling credit spreads, thus capitalizing on probabilities as opposed to entering a position hoping to profit on a “long shot.” Credit Spreads A credit spread is an option strategy that involves the simultaneous sale and purchase of an option with common underlays and expiration dates. As the name implies, the short options must be higher prices than the long, thus bringing a credit to the trader. For example, you may be able to sell a front month Dow 10300 call option for $650 and buy a 10500 call option for $250 to protect your short position. The trader would bring in a credit of $400 as a reward for accepting the risk of the Dow going up. Unlike selling naked options, the risk of a credit spread is limited to the spread between the strike prices minus the premium collected; in this example it would be $1,600. Is having limited risk worth the opportunity cost? Obviously there is a trade off between capping your risk and maximizing premium collected. Armed with the notion that 80% of all options will expire worthless, many traders are tempted to sell naked options. This strategy results in a limited profit and unlimited loss. Even if an investor successfully collects premium 8 out of 10 times, the 2 inevitable losing trades will likely erase previous profits and then some. Have you ever noticed that all insurance policies have a maximum benefit? This is not a coincidence. The insurance firm Lloyd’s of London discovered the importance of limiting losses the hard way. They prided themselves on the sale of “no limit” policies, but in the early 90’s they were averaging close to $3 billion a year due to asbestos claims. Reinsurance is another way in which insurers limit their risk. After collecting premium on a policy, firms allocate a portion of the proceeds to the purchase of insurance against the sold coverage. Credit spreads can be viewed in the same terms. Following the sale of an option, it is wise to limit potential losses by purchasing protection. Profit on Probability Given the overall probabilities involved in option trading, one can expect to collect the premium on credit spreads nearly 80% of the time. Hypothetically, an option trader could sell 10 credit spreads with payout and risk identical to the above example and yield a $600 profit calculated as follows ($475 x 8) - ($1,600 x 2) = $600. While some commodity traders might snuff at such a meager return, in percentage terms, the reward exceeds that of most other investment options, including the stock market. If the above example requires $11,000 of margin, an investor would earn a monthly return of nearly 5.5%!!! “Conventional” commodity traders would be turned off at the idea of a negative risk reward ratio. Risking $1,600 to make $475 may seem to be illogical on the surface, but if you look at the probabilities involved you will find the exact opposite. Frequency of the outcomes makes it advantageous to participate in trades in which the risk outweighs the reward. This is the exact strategy that casinos have thrived off of for years. The probabilities of options trading are not so different from those in the casino industry. While there are “jackpots” to be paid, over time the expected outcome is always in favor of the house. A simple stroll down the Las Vegas Strip proves that in the long run…it pays to play the odds.

Even if an investor successfully collects premium 8 out of 10 times, the 2 inevitable losing trades will likely erase previous profits and then some.

Futures Traders Helping Future Traders